Crypto Pick: Cindicator (CND)

I came across Cindicator (CND) only this year and was attracted to its utility token design. Most utility tokens I come across do not make sense immediately and there are always caveats on how the token can get to full-scale adoption. 

On its site, Cindicator touts itself as "hybrid intelligence for effective asset management", which is a really complicated and loaded tagline to make sense of immediately. Let me break that down simply for you.

Hybrid intelligence is founded on principles of crowdsourced opinions that is supplemented by mathematical predictions and artificial intelligence. Imagine you get 5 people to estimate the weight of an apple, and you get 5,000 people to do the same. In theory, the average estimate will be closer to the true value with more numbers to average from (the latter situation).

Based on this concept, Cindicator has created a predictive system based on an app that crowdsources for public's opinion. This was their proof-of-concept that has already been implemented. 

To make the predictions even more robust, Cindicator is using Artificial Intelligence to improve the system. Imagine giving weights to different factors, and then segregating the opinions by the demographics of the participants, a different picture can be painted with each set of data.

Wait, wait, so what do the CND tokens do?

Cindicator has a few level of services on Cindicator Bot, and participants get to be involved in different levels of submitting their opinions and different levels of details in the crowdsourced results. Beginner, Explorer, Trader, and Expert tiers required 5,000 CND, 30,000 CND, 200,000 CND and 700,000 CND respectively to get access to those services. (Source)

There is no mining or creation of additional tokens in Cindicator. With 2,000,000,000 total supply in CND tokens, this is a finite supply for its group of users. Hence, if the predictive system works as planned and adoption increases, CND tokens will become more valuable, and it will become more expensive to use in future. For example, the 5,000 CND tier service will cost $100 if the tokens are $0.02 each, and $1,000 if the CND tokens goes up to $0.20.

You pay for the tokens solely for the purpose of accessing the Cindicator Bot service. Participants have to submit their wallet address and balance to participate, and they are incentivised to give their best honest answers as the most accurate predictors are rated and rewarded in tokens. 

But can it be manipulated? Like all things crypto?

It is possible to create many many accounts (each account has 1 ETH address tied to 1 Telegram account) and load them up with just 5,000 CND each to submit answers to sway the opinions. However, it would be very effortful, and these accounts will be rated lower in the long run if their predictions turn out to be inaccurate.

Hence, Cindicator's system is actually intelligently designed to reward true, honest actors and disincentivise dishonest or malevolent actors.

I have not looked too deeply into the Artificial Intelligence system, but simply by training the system to reward the correct outcomes and avoid wrong outcomes, the system should get smarter theoretically. As such, my assumption is that the product will become more accurate, which will increase adoption, and the value of the CND tokens will therefore increase.

Take note! The Cindicator team has warned that users should not treat it as a speculative investment and should get the tokens only if they wish to use Cindicator's services. Users in USA, Singapore, and China are also warned against holding the tokens as the legal side of things might be complicated, although CND are really utility tokens rather than security tokens.

Let's talk prices

The crowd sale of CND was launched at $0.01 per token. At its peak in late January 2018, each CND rose to as high as $0.33, no thanks to pump-and-dump groups and the highly speculative market. I hate to say it, but at current prices, it'll hit over 15X ROI if CND ever gets back to its all-time high.

Personally I bought some tokens at $0.08 each as I felt comfortable with forking out $400 to try out the signal service. Now, it has dropped to below $0.02, which means that it is just at a slight premium compared to its token sale price. This translates to <$100 for the Beginner service, <$600 for the Explorer tier, and <$4,000 for the Trader tier. 

If you have checked out the prices of subscription-based trade signal services, they can go way higher than that. Therefore, I honestly think it is decently priced for you to try out the service, sell off the tokens if you find it useless for you, and hopefully at a better price than you had bought it for.

Last note – Decentralisation

Remember that crypto is all about decentralisation? Technically, we can do away with tokens and just use the Cindicator Bot as a service for paid members right? Why do we want to create scarcity and make the service exclusive then?

Well, the first thing is about the participants in this ecosystem. Users are identified by their ETH addresses so there is some form of anonymity, yet all the account balances are transparent to everyone else on the network. 

Furthermore, imagine if a centralised entity has control of all these user data, of their trading patterns and predictions. That would give the entity the power of information. In that note, the Cindicator team actually pitched the CND service to B2B businesses before and decided that it was best to move away from B2B. to protect the integrity of its service and system.

We identified the poor scalability of this classic B2B model large funds wanted to monopolise our technology, data, and trading signals
— Cindicator White Paper

Decentralisation ensures that there is diversity. And the team also concluded the potential of these signals for asset management, which leads us to their tagline – Hybrid Intelligence For Effective Asset Management. Not the catchiest one, but definitely a summative one.